Push In Football Betting
Push and pull spots are magnified buy low, sell high spots. This is a common theory is used in any field of investing, but how can this situation be applied to sports betting? Read on to find out how bettors can find push and pull spots when handicapping.
Sports Betting PUSH Totals bets are popular in football and basketball because they allow you to wager on the total combined number of points scored by both teams. A team favored by -7 must win the game by eight or more points to win the bet. If the team wins by seven, the result is a “push” and the bet is refunded. A spread of +7 means the team must win the game or lose by fewer than seven points to win the bet. A loss by seven would result in a push.
What is a push pull spot?
A push and pull spot is one my preferred angles when handicapping sports. The main difference between a 'buy low, sell high' and a push and pull is that a push and pull is a buy low and sell high going directly against each other. The market situation sets up when the market is heavily buying one team and selling the other.
The “pushing” of the value up and “pulling” of the value down stretches the market above and below the true price. Bettors who can spot the difference are able to squeeze out considerable value in their wagers.
Accumulating perception
Push and pull spots are most frequently created by accumulating perception. It is not a stretch to say that teams performing above average and winning will draw more money and attention than teams performing below average and losing, but the important thing to evaluate in push and pull spots is the odds movements in prior games.
College Football Betting Lines Today
Many bettors will only look at recent win/loss trends instead of identifying teams that are attracting money in the market. The “recency bias” exists in almost every sports betting market as bettors love to overreact to what they saw last, while market makers do not make short term adjustments. This is why teams being pushed are often overvalued, and why teams being pulled are offered at a discount.
Existing market precedence
Premier League Football Betting
Evaluating existing market precedence is an often ignored tactic by bettors. As mentioned above, understanding if a team is being bought or sold by the market is important. Equally important is finding a baseline for the market price.
- Read: Beating the betting market
A good place to start looking for market precedence is in recent matchups between the two teams during the same season. Each price in a betting market is initially set based off of a bookmakers’ rating.
Unless there are critical injuries or major adjustments within the team, the odds between two matchups of the same team should be the same price with the difference of venue change and home field advantage.
If a bettor can calculate home field advantage, they can often see the true bookmaker rating and adjustment for recent performance in the initial odds.
Static prices
Looking at all of the games available to bet on for a single day can be overwhelming. If bettors do not have enough time to maintain a regression model, a good starting point for finding push and pull spots is comparing opening prices equal to current prices in games featuring a team performing well.
When odds remain static and do not move in games involving an over-performing team, it is often an indicator that a tug-of-war scenario is taking place - with money pushing and pulling the over-performing team in conjunction with the under-performing team.
How to bet on push and pull spots
Bettors should start by seeking out static prices in the betting market. An evaluation of the past five to seven matches should be done to see if one team is producing winning results while the other is producing losing results – remember to look for extreme streaks only.
If contradicting perception exists, begin to look for market precedence. Has the over-performing team been bet up or down in the recent matches? Has the under-performing team been bet up or down in the recent matches? If there is a contrast in the betting market, look for recent meetings between the two teams.
Adjust for home field and evaluate the difference in price. If the price is higher or lower, that is the market adjustment for recent performance. The handicap to determine value is then comparing the market adjustment for recent performance to the true market value. If it is too high, there is almost certainly value betting the team being pulled in the market.
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Wondering what a push is and how it will affect your sports bets? Quite simply, a push is what happens to your bet when the event you wager on results in a tie.
As bettors or competitors, we build up wins and dread losses. We’re all familiar with creeds such as “the thrill of victory and agony of defeat.” You’ve probably heard that “winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.”
But sometimes, sporting events are neither a win nor a loss. Overtime and shootouts have minimized the number of ties in many sports, but sometimes things still end in a draw. So, how do sportsbooks deal with these situations?
In this guide you’ll learn:
- The definition of a push
- How sportsbooks deal with ties
- Ways to avoid pushes
And the Winner Is…Nobody!
Pushes happen in sports betting relatively frequently.
Say you’re betting on the NFL point spread in a match up between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, and the spread is set at +/-3. Whether you bet on the Cowboys -3 or the Giants +3, there is a distinct possibility of the game ending at 17-14, 20-17, or 24-21 Dallas. Each of those scores result in a push.
Totals also result in pushes with some frequency. If the Dodgers and Nationals are playing with Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer on the mound, the over/under might be six. A 4-2 LA win is a victory for the Dodgers, but a push regardless of whether you had the over or under.
There are some exceptions, but most sportsbooks will take the same approach when faced with a push.
Your Bet Is a Push, Now What?
Straight wagers (also known as single bets) that result in a push are refunded. Simple and to the point, regardless of juice, if you have the Buccaneers +7 at New Orleans and the Saints win 28-21, both sides get their cash back.
If the total on Tampa Bay and New Orleans is 49, both over and under are a push and bettors who took either side will be refunded.
Moneyline bets push in the case of an actual tie. If the Patriots are -250 against Jets while New York is +240, should the teams play to a 20-20 draw, both bets are refunded.
Things get slightly more complicated when parlays and teasers are involved.
How Sportsbooks Deal with Ties in Multi-Event Wagers
Bettors can get 6/1 odds if they win a three team parlay and 12/1 for a four teamer. What happens if you win three legs of a four team wager, but the fourth bet pushes?
Most sportsbooks will simply remove any ties from a parlay or teaser and pay the bet out as if it was a multi event wager with one fewer leg. So a four team parlay with three winners and a push will pay out the same as a winning three team parlay. While you were aiming for 12/1 odds, you receive 6/1 with the push dropped from the bet.
While this policy seems like the fair and equitable way of dealing with ties, some sportsbooks treat ties included in parlays and teasers as losing bets. This is particularly common on parlay cards produced early in the week that remain available for betting all the way up to kickoff on Saturday or Sunday.
The bottom line is that you should always read the small print. Know exactly how your sportsbook deals with pushes before you place a bet.
Of course, you’re more likely to be faced with a push in your parlay if you include a higher number of legs in the wager. A 10 team parlay has 10 chances for a push, whereas a two team parlay involves only two games that could possibly tie.
What Do You Get Out of a Push?
If you’re always in it to win it, it is possible to avoid pushes completely. If you spent time to watch a long sporting event and put a few bucks down, it can feel like a waste to get refunded if the game ends in a tie. On the flip side, a tie certainly beats a loss if you are a high volume better primarily concerned with ROI.
The easiest way to avoid pushes is to bet on spreads that include a half point, also known as a hook. There will never be a push with a 2.5 or 3.5 spread or a total of 47.5. If you can’t find a spread or total with a hook, you can usually buy a half point. You might pay a small price in juice, but it usually makes sense to take -125 to get -2.5 instead of -110 when laying three.
While moneyline bets occasionally push, it doesn’t happen a lot. There are no ties in the NBA, NHL, or MLB these days. The NFL had one tie last year, two in 2018, and none in 2017. The chances of a push when playing the moneyline in major sports is very small.
What Is A Push In Football Betting
Finally some sports, particularly soccer, offer three way betting. You can bet on either team to win or on a tie. Just remember that if you pick a team to win on a three way moneyline, a push will result in a loss rather than a refund.
Push In Betting Terms
Go for the Win, Settle for the Push
In the end, a push is not a bad result. It gives you a free data point to consider and learn from. Of course, that only holds true if your sportsbook refunds your bet in the case of a push. Read the terms and conditions carefully before placing any wagers.
Knowing is the key to success when betting on sports. You can find all the basic info you need to get started on the right foot in our sports betting 101 guides.