Blackjack Risk Of Ruin Calculator

• Risk Of Ruin Blackjack Calculator, turtle creek casino age, freecasingameoutbackjack, 66 casino restaurants.
• Risk of Ruin refers to the chance that you will lose your entire bankroll. The charts on this page display three views of risk using formulae from Don Schlesinger's Blackjack Attack. For all charts, we are playing six decks, S17, DAS, 5/6 penetration, Hi-Lo, betting optimally.

Risk of ruin is the percentage likelihood of losing a set amount of money over a specific number of hands at the Blackjack table. Ruin is just a way of saying “going broke”. For example, if you decided to take a $100 bankroll and bet $1 on each hand for 100 hands, your risk of ruin would be 0.5% (or a 1 in 200 chance of going broke). Risk given no goal and no time constraint- This is the Simple Risk of Ruin formula on Blackjack Attackpage 112. The result is the risk of ruin with no limit on.

CVCX Online Calculators - Risk Risk of Ruin Given No Goal and No Time Constraint (Simple Risk of Ruin) This is the Simple Risk of Ruin formula on Blackjack Attack page 112. The result is the risk of ruin with no limit on the number of hands and no quit point.

Introduction

The purpose of this calculator is to estimate the probability of ruin, given a positive expected value, standard deviation, bankroll, and infinite play. The calculator assumes the player flat betting and the odds of every trial are the same. The question the calculator answers is what is the probability the player would run out of money, as opposed to growing his bankroll forever. Here is some explanation of each field.

• Advantage — The player advantage of the bet. For example, in full pay deuces wild, which has a return of 100.762%, the player advantage is 0.00762. Please put the advantage in decimal form, as opposed to a percent.
• Standard deviation — The square root of the variance of each bet. For example, in full pay deuces wild this value is 5.08.
• Bankroll — If you lose every bet, this is the number of bets you could make before running out of money. In other words, the amount of money you can risk divided by the amount of each bet. For example, if you had $5,000 and were to play video poker at $1.25 a bet, your bankroll would be $5,000/$1.25 = 4,000.
• Risk of ruin — Leave this blank. When you click calculate the program will provide an estimate of the probability of running out of money. The alternative is growing the bankroll forever.

Disclaimer: This calculator produces an ESTIMATE only. The greater the bankroll size, the more accurate this estimate will be. In games like video poker, video keno, and slots, where the worst case scenario is losing one unit, I believe this calculator to overstate the chance of ruin.

Blackjack Bet Spread Calculator

Internal Links

• Risk of ruin in blackjack (play requirement for a bonus situation)

External Links

• Risk of ruin at Wikipedia
• Risk of Ruin for Video Poker and Other Skewed-Up Games at Blackjack Forum Online.

Written by:Michael Shackleford

CVCX Online consists of the sim Viewers and 12 calculators as follows:

CVCX Online Data Viewer

150,000 2,000,000,000 round sims with different combinations ofdecks, rules and strategies reside on the CVCX Online server. Theviewer can be used to look at the sim results. For each sim, youcan change the spread, risk and other variables and results alongwith the optimal betting ramp for your settings will be instantlydisplayed. Full CVCX functionality (reports, charts, simulation,custom bets, etc) cannot be made available due to Web limitations.But, I believe the data most commonly used is available. Click Launchto invoke the viewer. For more info on CVCX, see CVCXPages.

CVCX Online Chart Viewer

21,000 graphs with different combinations of decks, rules andstrategies also reside on the CVCX Online server. You can changethe strategy, decks, rules and spread and charts can be displayedof SCORE, Advantage and N0 for all reasable penetrations assumingoptimal betting at a risk of ruin of 13.5%. About 4,000,000 datapoints have been plotted. This is a tiny fraction of all possible siuations; but should provide a good view of the effect of variousvariables on performance. Click Launch to invoke the viewer. Sorry,this function is only available to CVCX users.

Blackjack Risk Of Ruin Calculator

Calculators

Twelve Blackjack calculators can be found below to answer various 'whatif' questions. Win Rates and Standard Deviations used in these calculatorscan be found in the CVCX Online Viewer. Most of the methodologies usedare either in or based on formulae in Don Schlesinger’s BlackjackAttack and page references are supplied below. Pick the desired calculatorand hit the Launch button.

Risk

Risk given no goal and no timeconstraint - This is the Simple Risk of Ruin formula onBlackjack Attack page 112. The result is the risk of ruin withno limit on the number of hands and no quit point. Simply set thebankroll.

Risk given no goal but a timeconstraint - This is the trip ruin formula in BlackjackAttack page 132. Risk is still calculated, but for a specifiednumber of hands. The risk is lower than with the above calculatorsince you have a quit point.

Risk given a goal and timeconstraint - This is called a double barrier formula andis found on Blackjack Attack page 137. We are calculating therisk of bankruptcy before hitting a goal or playing a number of hands.Here, you set a point at which you will stop playing. The risk islower than the above calculator since you will stop playing if youhit one of two quit points: Time or Goal.

Risk given a goal and no timeconstraint - This is a modification of the above with thenumber of hands removed. It can be found on Blackjack Attackpage 139. Here you quit if you hit a goal, but there is no limit onnumber of hands.

Goal

Probability of reaching a goalbefore going bankrupt given a time constraint - This formulais found on Blackjack Attack page 136. Here you specify themaximum number of hands you will play, a bankroll and a goal. Theresult is the probability of reaching that goal before going bankruptor hitting the specified number of hands.

Probability of reaching a goalbefore going bankrupt with no time constraint - This formulais found on Blackjack Attack page 138. This is the same asthe above calculator except that there can be an unlimited numberof hands. Therefore, the probability of reaching the goal is a littlehigher.

Results

Range of Probable Results- Here, you specify the number of hands you will play and a probabilityand the range of your results is calculated. For example, if you specify95%, and the answer is -664 to 1346, then 95% of the time your winningswill be somewhere between -664 and 1,346 units. The higher the percentthat you specify, the wider the range.

What results can I expect giventime and probability of reaching goal without ruin - Thisis the formula on page 137 solved for goal. Your probable resultsare calculated. You must give a probability. For example, if you specify98%, you will hit the calculated goal 98% of the time without goingbankrupt within the specified number of hands.

Actual

Probability of your actualresults - Here you can enter the actual casino resultsfrom a trip to see how far you were from the expected results. Setthe number of hands played and how much you won or lost. If the answeris 50%, you won the amount that you should expect. If you won morethan you expected, the answer will be the percentage of times thatyou should expect at least that result.

Bankroll

What is the required bankrollgiven a goal and time constraint - How much do you needto avoid bankruptcy? This is the formula on page 137 solved for bankroll.Here, you enter the number of hands you will play on a trip, yourgoal and the desired probability of reaching that goal. The requiredbankroll is calculated.

What is the required bankrollgiven a goal and no time constraint - How much do you needto avoid bankruptcy? This is the formula on page 139 solved for bankroll.This is the same as the above calculator, except there is no limiton the number of hands played.

Time

Hands required given goal anddesired probability - This is the formula on page 137 solvedfor time. Here, you calculate the needed number of hands.