Melbourne Cup Horses Favorites To Win

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The Melbourne Cup is Australia's most famous annual Thoroughbred horse race.It is a 3200-metre race for three-year-olds and over, conducted by the Victoria Racing Club on the Flemington Racecourse in Melbourne, Victoria as part of the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival.It is the richest 'two-mile' handicap in the world and one of the richest turf races. The event starts at 3:00 pm on the first. Only two horses have been the Melbourne Cup favourite three years in a row. Trafalgar in 1909, 1910 and 1911, who didn't win in any of those years, and Phar Lap in 1929, 1930 and 1931, who won. Weight: 54.5kg/Age: 6yo/Jockey: TBC/Trainer: Paul Preusker. Despite only managing. Is aiming to become only the eighth horse to win the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup in the same year. The same weight Makybe Diva shouldered to win the 2004 Melbourne. Whatever horse you’re backing to win the Melbourne Cup you can bet that Ladbrokes.com.au are offering the best Melbourne Cup betting markets! Recent Melbourne Cup Winners. The most recent Melbourne Cup winners going back to 2000 are listed below along with Melbourne Cup winning trainers, jockeys and winning Melbourne Cup times.

Updated November 04, 2014 17:08:20

It's that time of year again, when Australians who know anything and nothing about racing stop what they're doing for the Melbourne Cup.

ABC Fact Check takes a look at the statistics since 1861, the very first year the Melbourne Cup was held.

How often does the favourite actually win? And would you be ahead or behind if you bet on the favourite every year?

Here's what we found:

1.

A favourite horse has won the Melbourne Cup 34 times out of 153 races. This means the favourite has a 22 per cent chance of winning.

Peter Hall, a professor in mathematics and statistics from the University of Melbourne, says that's a good result.

'If you choose a horse at random, the probability that it wins is 1/24 = 0.042; and if you put your money on the favourite, the probability of it winning is 34/153 = 0.22,' he said.

'That's an increase by a factor of about 5.3 by simply noting which horse is the favourite, and that is not bad.'

2.

The favourite has placed first, second or third in 46 per cent of all Melbourne Cup races.

3.

The favourite's odds have ranged from $1.73 - Phar Lap in 1930 - to $8. The winner's odds have ranged from $1.73 to $101.

Veteran racing journalist Max Presnell says there will never be another favourite with odds as short as Phar Lap's.

'The composition of the Melbourne Cup has changed with the internationals racing in it, it's a handicap, horses carry big weights, so it would be very surprising if another champion like Phar Lap ever raced in a Melbourne cup,' he said.

'The great horses these days will shy clear of it... they wouldn't want to risk a good horse to win one race.'

4.

Melbourne Cup Horses Favorites To Win Xp

The average odds of all Melbourne Cup favourites is $5.03.There have been 173 favourites since 1861 - two equal favourites 16 times, and three equal favourites twice. The average odds of all 153 winners is $15.25.

5.

If you had put $10 on all 173 favourites to win in every one of the 153 Melbourne Cup races, you would be behind by $20. The total winnings from the 34 favourites that won would have been $1,710, but you would have spent $1,730.

6.

Melbourne cup horses favorites to win xp

The longest period without a favourite winning is 13 years, before Bitalli broke the drought in 1923.

A favourite has never won the Melbourne Cup more than two years in a row. British-bred Makybe Diva is the only horse to have won the Melbourne Cup three years in a row in 2003, 2004 and 2005, but she was only favourite in 2004 and 2005.

7.

Only two horses have been the Melbourne Cup favourite three years in a row. Trafalgar in 1909, 1910 and 1911, who didn't win in any of those years, and Phar Lap in 1929, 1930 and 1931, who won in 1930.

8.

The last Australian-bred favourite was Alcopop in 2009. The last Australian-bred favourite to win the Melbourne Cup was Sirius in 1944. The last Australian-bred horse to win the Melbourne Cup was Shocking in 2009.

'The visiting horses are better stayers than our horses, they're better over longer journeys - the 3,200 metres - than our horses,' Presnell said.

'They've got to travel over here and settle in and handle our conditions, which for years was a problem, but they're getting better at it now because the trainers understand what they've got to do, so it's becoming very hard for Australians to win the Melbourne Cup.'

9.

In 1934, equal favourites Nightly and Sir Simper had a starting price of $5.50 but finished 21st and 22nd in a field of 22.

The data

YEARFAVOURITE/SFAVOURITE'S ODDS ($)FAVOURITE'S RESULT
2013Fiorente7.00WON
2012Dunaden7.0014th
2011Americain5.004th
2010So You Think3.003rd
2009Alcopop4.806th
2008Mad Rush5.507th
2007Master O'Reilly3.808th
2006Pop Rock6.002nd
Tawqeet6.0019th
2005Makybe Diva4.50WON
2004Makybe Diva3.50WON
2003Mamool6.5023rd
2002Vinnie Roe5.504th
2001Sky Heights6.008th
2000Kaapstad Way5.504th
1999Sky Heights4.5017th
1998Jezabeel7.00WON
1997Might And Power4.50WON
1996Oscar Schindler5.0015th
1995Double Trigger4.5018th
1994Vintage Crop6.007th
1993Our Pompeii6.0014th
1992Veandercross3.252nd
1991Let's Elope4.00WON
1990Kingston Rule8.00WON
The Phantom8.002nd
1989Empire Rose5.5015th
1988Empire Rose6.00WON
Natski6.002nd
1987Rosedale6.003rd
1986Mr. Lomondy6.008th
1985Our Sophia5.5010th
1984Affinity5.006th
Bounty Hawk5.0015th
1983Chiamare7.006th
1982Just A Dash6.5016th
1981No Peer5.008th
1980Hyperno4.007th
1979Dulcify4.00Pulled up
1978So Called5.505th
1977Gold And Black4.50WON
1976Van Der Hum5.50WON
1975Suleiman3.754th
1974Leilani4.502nd
1973Glengowan3.502nd
1972Magnifique4.502nd
1971Gay Icarus2.759th
1970Voleur3.256th
1969Tails3.007th
1968Lowland7.004th
Arctic Coast7.006th
1967Red Handed5.00WON
General Command5.006th
1966Galilee6.50WON
1965Sail Away5.0017th
1964Sir Dane4.0024th
1963Summer Regent3.2522nd
1962Even Stevens4.00WON
1961Sparkler7.009th
1960Tulloch4.007th
1959Mac6.0021st
1958Yeman3.254th
1957Redcraze6.508th
1956Redcraze2.752nd
1955Rising Fast3.002nd
1954Rising Fast3.50WON
1953Hydrogen5.006th
1952Dalray6.00WON
1951Morse Code5.00Fell
1950Alister4.008th
1949Delta7.005th
1948Howe2.755th
1947Fresh Boy6.502nd
1946Cordale5.0010th
1945Silver Link8.002nd
St. Fairy8.004th
1944Sirius4.00WON
1943Dark Felt4.50WON
Skipton4.505th
1942Dark Felt5.504th
1941Beau Vite6.503rd
1940Beau Vite2.754th
1939Rivette6.00WON
1938Royal Chief6.005th
1937The Trump6.50WON
Sir Regent6.50Unplaced
Hua6.5014th
1936Talking4.007th
1935Marabou5.50WON
1934Nightly5.5021st
Sir Simper5.5022nd
1933Rogilla3.5015th
1932Peter Pan5.00WON
1931Phar Lap4.008th
1930Phar Lap1.73WON
1929Phar Lap2.003rd
1928Strephon3.252nd
1927Silvius4.002nd
1926Pantheon3.253rd
1925Manfred2.752nd
1924Spearfelt3.253rd
1923Bitalli5.00WON
1922The Cypher7.002nd
1921Eurythmic6.00Pulled up
1920Salitros6.00Unplaced
1919Lucknow7.004th
1918King Offa4.505th
1917Lanius2.756th
1916Shepherd King5.002nd
1915Lavendo6.0014th
Reputation6.00Unplaced
1914St Carwyne6.004th
1913Beragoon4.005th
1912Duke Foote2.50Unplaced
1911Trafalgar4.5015th
1910Trafalgar5.502nd
1909Prince Foote5.00WON
Trafalgar5.004th
1908Alawa3.255th
1907Apologue4.00WON
1906Solution4.506th
1905Tartan4.503rd
1904Wariki7.00Broke down
1903Abundance5.5012th
FJA5.50Unplaced
1902Abundance5.003rd
The Persian5.0012th
1901Revenue2.75WON
1900Lancaster4.0011th
1899Merriwee8.00WON
Wait-A-Bit8.00Unplaced
1898Clarion6.0010th
1897Positano7.006th
1896Newhaven5.00WON
1895Hova6.002nd
1894Ruenalf4.0010th
1893Sainfoin9.00Unplaced
1892Malvolio7.00Unplaced
1891Pigeontoe5.00Unplaced
1890Carbine5.00WON
1889Melos5.003rd
1888Chicago5.007th
1887Meteor6.0014th
1886Trident6.004th
1885Nordenfeldt6.004th
1884Hastings6.004th
1883Martini-Henry6.00WON
1882Sweet William5.004th
1881Darebin4.009th
1880Progress4.002nd
1879Suwarrow4.253rd
1878Melita5.00Unplaced
1877Savanaka5.002nd
1876Feu D'Artifice4.25Unplaced
1875Imperial4.006th
1874Goldsbrough3.007th
1873Don Juan4.00WON
1872Contessa5.00Unplaced
1871Romula4.002nd
1870Lapdog6.002nd
Warrior6.00Unplaced
Trump Card6.00Unplaced
1869Circassian3.00Unplaced
1868Tim Whiffler3.504th
1867Tim Whiffler3.50WON
1866The Barb7.00WON
1865Panic6.002nd
Rose Of Denmark6.00Unplaced
1864Roebuck4.50Unplaced
1863Musidora3.002nd
Rose Of Denmark3.003rd
1862Archer3.00WON
1861Mormon4.002nd

Source:Miller's Guide

Collated by: ABC Fact Check/ABC News Digital's Daniel Franklin/ABC Interactive Digital Storytelling/TAB

Topics:horse-racing, human-interest, gambling, australia

First posted November 03, 2014 12:36:16

It's the biggest race on the Australian sporting calendar but who'll take top spot? Here are your latest best bets to take the top prize....

It's the biggest race on the Australian sporting calendar but who'll take top spot? Here are your latest best bets to take the top prize.

It’s almost time to giddy up.Source:AAP

The Melbourne Cup is nearly upon us. Here’s what many of the key connections are saying ahead of the race that stops the nation.

SURPRISE BABY — Jockey Craig Williams

“I think it’s really important to have a good barrier draw. I spoke to (rainer) Paul (Preusker) yesterday (Sunday), and he’s really delighted by the way Surprise Baby’s trained on,” Williams told RSN radio. “I’m really looking forward to tomorrow.

“It’s an amazing achievement for all of the trainers and staff to get these horses ready for this gruelling challenge.

“When I’ve ridden him these two runs this preparation at a mile and 2000m, he really didn’t have the gate speed — but now out to two miles, it’s a completely different race. I’ve been on him enough times now to have a good understanding of him.

“But he did put himself closer in the first 300m when he got into the Melbourne Cup last year when winning the Bart Cummings.

“I hope I have those options (early in the race) — if I don’t, then we’ll be a bit further back.”

Win

Trainer Paul Preusker

“Like last year, you think, ‘I don’t know if I want to do this to myself again’ but here we are,” Preusker told RSN.

“It’s all good, that’s where you want to be, you’re on the ball the whole time, I get told to stop checking him quite a bit.

“Absolutely perfect (barrier draw). I got my wishes. To draw 7-10 leaves our options open. He’s not in the gates for long, it’s all less pressure on the animal.

“I’m sure Craig (Williams) will run through it (the tactics). The only thing I’ll remind him is to ride your horse. We all get too involved a lot of the time, thinking how a race is going to unfold … I’m sure Craig will have everything spot on.

“Last year he was quite new on the scene, and holding a lot of nerves still. This year he’s more of a V8 diesel, he’s more relaxed and a lot better horse to train this year.

“For sure (he’s better for last year’s experience). It’s great exposure, and when you race them over that distance, you get quite a few minutes of learning time, they come out a fair bit wiser, and hopefully we’ve made the right call.”

SIR DRAGONET, ETAH JAMES, PERSAN — Trainer Ciaron Maher

On Sir Dragonet: “He’s in great order, Winksy (James Winks) strode a lap of the track with him on Monday morning, then we took him down to Mordialloc for a walk in the water. He’s nice and bright and well, now he’s got his feet up waiting for tomorrow.

“I think his second-highest rating — the Cox Plate was his highest — was on a firm deck over in Europe, so I’m confident … obviously he does love a shower of rain, but I’m confident he’ll handle it no problems.

“He’s had the right foundation, which is key going into a Melbourne Cup. He’s looked better and moved better the longer he’s been here, and since the Cox Plate run … on the day of the Cox Plate, his recovery was almost instant.

“In what is a testing WFA race, he could’ve picked grass when we were putting the rug on him. There wasn’t the flare of a nostril, there wasn’t anything. His coat has definitely come on from that race, they’re all the little indicators you look for, he’s certainly ticking all the boxes for me heading to a race like that.

On his other pair: “Persan’s got a big chance I reckon. He’s in on the right weight. Talking about foundations, he’s been racing all year, he’s had his runs spaced, he loves Flemington, it is a handicap and as you see year in, year out, the ones down in the handicap tend to figure providing they’ve got the right formlines, right ability and get a nice enough run. He’s drawn out quite wide which’ll make the job a bit more difficult for (jockey) Micky (Dee), but he could definitely run a big race.

“Etah James, a genuine two-miler, if she can finish in the first half (of the field), I’d be rapt with her.”

ANTHONY VAN DYCK, TIGER MOTH — TJ Comerford (trainer Aidan O’Brien’s stable representative)

“Anthony Van Dyck has probably a better draw, Tiger Moth is drawn the one from the outside. It’s better that way around than Anthony Van Dyck being out there again. These are the draws you get but I still think that Tiger Moth still has his chance from out there. It’s not the end of the world.

“This morning they worked over 1500 metres on the sand. (Jockey) Hugh Bowman is coming in tomorrow to sit on Anthony Van Dyck to do the same.

On two live chances in the race: “It’s great. To have one runner is great, to have two in it is better again. It’s grand, it’s a great race. We’ve always run well in the race, our horses have competed well. It’d be great to win it but it’s not as simple as that.

“Hopefully we can have a good chance on Tuesday.”

Compared to previous teams they’ve brought out: “It’s hard to compare them, but we’ve always brought horses that we thought would do well here. Horses that would have done well in English St Legers. Anthony Van Dyck is an English Derby winner and Tiger Moth has run second in an Irish Derby at only his third run. At the same time his last run was an impressive win in a Group 3 at Leopardstown.

“The ground seems all in their favour as well. They’re two good chances.

“I wouldn’t like to separate them. Anthony Van Dyck is a class horse but he has to give a lot of weight away to Tiger Moth. But then Tiger Moth is drawn 23 so he’ll have to be able to negotiate from out there — I’m sure (jockey) Kerrin McEvoy will have a plan. We probably don’t know enough about the three-year-old, really, but I do know that he’s going well enough while here and he’s doing everything right and he’s enjoying himself — he’s fresh and he’s well and he’s fit.

“I just think they’re two good chances. I wouldn’t have one over the other even if you give me a free bet there I might struggle. Can I do a reverse forecast?”

Jockey Hugh Bowman (pre-barrier draw)

On Anthony Van Dyck towards Melbourne Cup: “He’s certainly one of the leading chances, there’s no doubt about that. There’s two ways of looking at it, I guess.

“You could say he’s got too much weight. If it’s not run to suit, the weight will be an issue, but if he gets the right run on a nice pace, and it’s a genuinely run race, that will suit him. I think he can win with that weight. I just hope they don’t go as slow as they did in the Derby.”

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Anthony Van Dyck is looking good.Source:Getty Images

MASTER OF REALITY, TWILIGHT PAYMENT — Mark Power (Joseph O’Brien’s stable representative)

On their pair’s work on Sunday: “They didn’t do anything too serious. Nice strong building canter. They both did it within themselves.

“Perfect. Couldn’t be any happier. Happy with the draws yesterday. We’ll probably roll forward from there. Horses outside of us, Miami Bound and Sir Dragonet, we probably couldn’t ask for a better draw.”

Do barriers play a part? Plus comments on other runners: “For Tiger Moth, Vow And Declare was drawn similarly last year so that’s not to say that they can’t be overcome. Three-year-olds from the northern hemisphere, they seem to be taking some beating lately. Rekindling, Cross Counter and Il Paradiso — I suppose, they have a great record in the race.

Horse to beat: “You’d have to think that Anthony Van Dyck would have a great chance. He’s the class horse in the race even though it is a race with plenty of depth in it. Tiger Moth being a northern hemisphere three-year-old, they’re two of them to fear.”

PRINCE OF ARRAN — Aled Beech (trainer Charlie Fellowes’ stable representative)

Melbourne Cup Horses 2019 Favorites To Win

On Prince Of Arran’s work: “Yesterday he had a breeze, he felt good. Just asked him to stretch along the last two furlongs he rode out nicely. Felt good this morning.”

On barrier one: “Happy enough. It’s much better than drawing out wide like we have the previous few years. It just gives us more options and makes her life easier.

“He’s feeling great in himself. What he feels like at home, he feels even better here.”

What makes the horse different here: “Honestly, I’m not sure what it is. He just thrives. He loves the climate, the style of racing. It suits him down to the ground. The racecourses over here, he just loves the Australian style of racing.”

How special would winning a Melbourne Cup be after quarantine? “It’d make it so worth it. If we could win it would be incredible. You think about it (winning) over and over in your head (winning).”

ASHRUN — Trainer Andreas Wohler

Windows

Ashrun after Saturday’s win in the Lexus Hotham Stakes: “Really well. I’m surprised the way he is. Such a race takes out of it (takes something out of the horse) but he’s eaten up, looks great. Very happy.”

On the quick back-up: “Normally you don’t do that but we didn’t have any other choice but to run him on Saturday. Lucky he went really well.”

On wide barrier: “We shouldn’t have any interference for the first 1000 metres (laughing).”

On his confidence in the horse for him to come here despite COVID obstacles: “We always thought that he might get into the Cup straight away but unfortunately we didn’t so we had to run yesterday. That worked out, luckily.

“It’s a strange journey these days. I’m in awe of the Cup so much — we’ve had great success — and when you have a good runner you want to be there.

“The way he ran on Saturday then he should have a chance of being in very good money.”

Jockey Kerrin McEvoy (pre-barrier draw)

On Ashrun’s chances on Tuesday: “He’s a good stayer. Good in the wind. He didn’t have a lot of favours in the run (on Saturday). You can’t be taking him lightly on Tuesday. He’ll stay the trip and has a bit of class about him.”

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Ashrun was warmed up nicely with a win in Saturday’s Lexus Hotham Stakes at Flemington.Source:Getty Images

STRATUM ALBION — Dave Casey (Trainer Willie Mullins’ stable representative)

On Stratum Albion: “We’ve been delighted with him, very good. He did his last work on Saturday — delighted with him. He’s got a decent enough draw so hoping for a bit of luck with him on Tuesday.

“I think in the last week he’s come on plenty. Barrier nine is good, gives us options and there’s a couple of fancied horses around him. Anthony Van Dyck isn’t far away, so is Surprise Baby, that’ll give us options to go forward or go back.

Melbourne Cup Horses Favorites To Win Prizes

“Anthony Van Dyck deserves to be favourite — English Derby winner and he ran so well in the Caulfield Cup. The likes of Prince Of Arran, brilliant form here. His (Stratum Albion) form doesn’t stand out for a lot of it — mixing with jumping as well. We don’t mind being the underdog.

“He’s a horse that can get quite stuffy and takes a lot of work but he’s enjoying it out there. Very happy with his work out there.”

What it would mean to win a Melbourne Cup: “It’d be unbelievable. Obviously Willie has gone very close in the past. It’d be amazing to win the race and to be associated with Willie doing that would be brilliant. Hopefully we might do it on Tuesday and if we don’t we’ll keep trying.”

Jordan Childs — how many calls did the jockey make to get the ride: “I’ll say three. But I’ve been watching him. I think it was Damian Lane who recommended him and I saw him riding Surprise Baby, who I fancied last year, who I’ve been watching him riding. Obviously with two weeks in quarantine in Sydney there wasn’t a lot to do so I’ve been watching plenty of racing.

“I thought he’s been riding well and with good confidence. He’s got the pedigree there as well. I think Stratum will give him a good ride and hopefully it’ll all work out.”

VERRY ELLEEGANT, FINCHE — Trainer Chris Waller

On Verry Elleegant’s re-handicap after Caulfield: “It’s a concern but it’s not something to dwell on, it’s probably an honour, to tell you the truth.

“We have to remember what she has won and that’s the reason she has that weight.

“She is a very good horse with a big heart but she will need that heart on the first Tuesday in November.

“I’ve always said the Caulfield Cup is traditionally the best lead-up race. It might have changed a little bit in recent years but at least we have the Caulfield Cup winner going into the Melbourne Cup.

“For the last three seasons she has won over 2400m at Group 1 level and I don’t think the distance is a problem, although we have to make sure she switches off and settles.

“We respect every runner but let’s hope there is not a superstar in the race to beat her.

“Finche hasn’t had much luck in his two Melbourne Cup runs.

“The effort told last year when he just had to do a bit too much work and, from memory, it wasn’t much better the year before.”

“If he can draw a barrier and get a nice run he will be fighting out the finish.

“I had a look at him on a video call the other day and he’s very fit.”

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Verry Elleegant will fly the New Zealand flag on Tuesday.Source:Getty Images

Waller’s assistant trainer Charlie Duckworth on Finche

“Chris had Finche so fit for the Cup last year but if there was a race after it, he would not have been running,’’ Duckworth said.

The Melbourne Cup Horse Race

“This spring, Chris has followed almost the same program but with one less lead-up race.

“Finche is slightly heavier than last year but is as fit as we can get him.

“He does have genuine two-mile form, too.”

Melbourne Cup Horses Favorites To Win

(Quotes via Ray Thomas, The Daily Telegraph)

Jockey James McDonald — Finche

On Finche drawing barrier six: “Obviously drawing a good gate’s a big help for him, he can get into a rhythm pretty quickly and obviously (with) a long run down to the first corner, we can just put him where we really want to.

Melbourne Cup Horses Favorites To Win Money

“He hasn’t really drawn a gate this preparation but he’s run really well, so now he’s drawn a gate, there’s no excuses.

On his work during the week: “He’s in really good form, he’s actually really fresh.

“He’s only had a couple of prep runs leading into this. Chris and the team are very happy with him, and he looks really well.

“Hopefully the big striding chestnut can salute.”

(Quotes via Channel 10)

This story first appeared on punters.com.au and was reproduced with permission