Can You Bet On The Presidential Election
Yes, you can legally bet on the 2020 presidential election but only through certain methods. Those involved in the race obviously can’t bet on the outcome. But, for those interested in politics and want to gamble on the fate of the candidates running, there are online offshore sportsbooks that will have odds for you.
Is it fun to gamble on politics? You bet! Pixabay/Jan Vasek
Most avid gamblers know that you can bet on the 2020 presidential election, and some of them have probably already made plenty of wagers well in advance. You can lay your money down on challenger Joe Biden or incumbent President Donald Trump. Pick the right choice, and you could come away with a hefty profit. US Presidential Election Betting works just like wagering on one team to beat the other straight up. The moneyline is simply a wager where the team, or presidential candidate in this case, must win. There’s no amount of points a team or candidate has to win by or any other stipulation.
Everybody has a political opinion and a prediction about who will win the 2020 election. But are you willing to “put your money where your mouth is,” as the old adage goes? Well, you can bet on political outcomes, and the industry has only become bigger in recent years. Not only can you gamble on who you think will win the presidential election, but such bets might also give us a clue about who could win, according to political scientists.
Is It Legal to Bet on Political Outcomes?
Gambling in America used to be heavily regulated. Back in the 1980s and early 1990s, betting on politics was a growing industry, just like it is in sports. But former NBA star Bill Bradley, who served three terms as a New Jersey senator from 1979 to 1997, led the charge to curtail gambling. Enter PAPSA, the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act. It was a federal ban on sports gambling that curtailed betting on sports—and politics. The bipartisan effort passed the Democratic-controlled Congress and was signed into law by President George H.W. Bush in 1992, going into effect in January of 1993. Only four states were exempt from this: Oregon, Montana, Delaware and, of course, Nevada, as all four already had some sort of statewide regulated gambling.
SEE ALSO: How to Combat the Sinister Role Deepfakes Will Play in the Election
New Jersey challenged PAPSA in the courts, and it went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, which struck down the law and handed New Jersey, and gamblers, a big victory. Congress could still get involved in the future, states still need to pass laws enabling regulated gambling, and the Federal Wire Act stands in the way of online betting, but placing wagers on politics is back in business.
As Legal Betting Online points out, “The irony of betting on the elections and events associated with those politicians attempting to outlaw gambling is not lost on the American people.”
Believe it or not, such predictive markets answering “yes” or “no” questions about politics—like, “Will Donald Trump be reelected?” or “Will Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard drop out next month?”—were allowed even before PAPSA was dumped, as regulators sort of ignored these measures. Why? “For the valuable insight they provided,” writes Sports Betting Dime. “As traders buy and sell their shares, researchers get a better idea at what the collective mind is thinking about candidates and the events surrounding them. The idea is that people are buying shares based on what they truly believe is going to happen, not just what they want to happen. These markets provide real-time insight into political campaigns, and how different events impact them.”
How Betting on Ballots Works
To find out more about the nuts and bolts of political bets, I spoke to oddsmaker Mike Pierce with online sportsbook TopBet.eu. I went to their site and asked some questions about how to place a wager and what the numbers mean, as I am a novice gambler.
For example, the site lists Donald Trump at -125. Does that mean he’s going to win or lose? “Since Trump is a -125 favorite, you would need to risk $125 to win $100 on him to be president in 2020,” Pierce explained.
TopBet.eu also lists +200 for Elizabeth Warren, but that doesn’t mean they think she’s going to win. “Conversely, if you [look at] Warren, who is +200 to be the next president, a $100 bet on her would win you $200 net profit.”
So how do they determine these odds, who gets a minus (-) sign and who gets a positive (+) sign next to their names?
“At the current moment, we win money if Trump is reelected as president and lose money if Warren is elected U.S. president,” Pierce said. “This is because 37% of cash on the 2020 U.S. presidential future is backing Warren who is a +200 underdog, while 29% of cash on the future is backing the -125 favorite Trump.”
Do Betting Markets Help Predict the Future?
The literature from academia on political betting as a predictor is a lot more supportive than you may think. Given that a good theory can describe, explain and predict, why not an independent assessment via betting?
“Prediction markets apparently originated in 1988, when the first Iowa Electronic Markets predicted the winner of the presidential election,” writes Michael Abramowicz in his article “The Politics of Prediction” published in Innovations: Technology, Governance, Globalization, an MIT Press Journal. “The founds of the Iowa Electronic Markets wanted a vehicle that would better explain the workings of the financial markets, and their approach built on the work of experimental economists who had conducted experiments using simplified financial markets in the laboratory.”
But betting on politics goes even further back to the days of post-Civil War politics. In the Journal of Economic Perspectives, Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf found that bets were a pretty good forecast of elections, even before the era of scientific surveys from 1868 to the 1940s. But an analysis of betting on the 2008 Democratic Party primary candidates by Emily West in the Journal of Politics showed a mixed result for determining the connection between belief in success and bets.
I visited RealClearPolitics and saw that while Joe Biden is leading the national polls by a little—ahead in New Hampshire and even Massachusetts (Warren’s state), taking Nevada, winning South Carolina and Texas by a wide margin, losing only Iowa—he’s trailing Warren in betting odds by a 33-point margin. I asked Pierce how that could be.
“We feel that while Biden is the more well-known candidate, it appears Warren is starting to be the more popular candidate,” he explained. “She is starting to receive more money for fundraising compared to Biden. This is a big reason why we think she will be the Democratic nominee for president next year.”
I’m not so sure, but it is fascinating that the outcomes of betting could be so different from the polls. We’ll find out next year if using your head and following the surveys is the smart wager, or gambling on your heart and betting on who you want to win could be the best plan.
One final note: Before you lay down a single dollar on a bet, do your research and make sure you’re casting your lot with a reputable site that has a good track record of paying off when you win.
John A. Tures is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Georgia—read his full bio here.
Yesterday morning, I was having a conversation with a dear friend of mine in another state. She asked me if there was a lot of betting on coronavirus situations. I replied that I thought the upcoming elections were probably generating more action.
She replied, “Isn’t it illegal to gamble on political elections in the United States?”
I’m not sure I knew, so I thought I’d do some research.
How Can You Bet On The Presidential Election
Here’s what I learned about whether you can gamble on elections in the United States:
There are quite a few safe online betting sites offering US Presidential Odds, but we’ve found MyBookie to be the best. Follow this link to visit MyBookie or check out our other top-rated online sportsbooks for the 2020 presidential election.
- MyBookie – 100% welcome bonus up to $1,000
- BetNow – 100% welcome bonus up to $1,000
- Bovada – 100% welcome bonus up to $250
- BetUS – 100% welcome bonus up to $2,500
Want a little more info? Jump ahead and learn more about the latest election betting odds and lines.
Betting on United States Elections Isn’t a New Thing
Betting on presidential elections has a long and notorious history in the United States.
And just like the sports betting scene, the action on Presidential elections can be thought of as a marketplace.
From shortly after the Civil War until shortly after World War II, markets for betting on the presidential election were big and efficient. Not only that, but the favorites in betting markets also tended to win elections.
I’d contend that it probably hasn’t, really. It’s now more of an underground betting activity conducted with offshore sportsbooks. Previously, betting on presidential elections was an organized activity – even when it was illegal.
But we do have access to more betting opportunities than ever before. Also, modern scientific polling has replaced some of the interest in betting markets and their predictions for who’s going to be the next President of the United States.
Historically, so-called betting commissioners managed these betting markets and used standard contracts for that purpose. Sometimes you’d see more money betting on elections than were being put into action on stocks and bonds.
In the late 19th and early 20th century, you could get daily odds from various newspapers for at least a month before the election.
The most significant election, in terms of dollars wagered, was the election of 1916. Bettors wagered over $165 million on that contest. (Those dollars have been adjusted for inflation.)
Betting Markets Have Historically Been Good at Predicting Winners
Can You Bet On The Presidential Election In Las Vegas
The betting markets on elections in New York City almost always predicted an election’s winner. In fact, the market was also a good predictor of whether a vote was going to be close.
The favorite in these betting markets won almost three out of four times over 50 years. That’s even more impressive when you consider that the practice of conducting scientific polls didn’t begin until the 1930s.
Much of the historical information related to election betting markets between the end of the Civil War and the first half of the 20th century can be found in more detail in a paper on historical prediction markets written by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf.
The conclusion so far, though, is that regardless of the legalities involved, people have been able to bet on presidential elections in the United States for a long time.
And, before polling became standard, betting markets were the de facto means of predicting election outcomes and were remarkably accurate.
Betting Political Elections Is Illegal Throughout the United States
Betting on sports used to be illegal almost everywhere, but over the last couple of years, legislation has loosened up regarding betting on sports.
People also bet on entertainment events like who’s going to win the Oscars, although that kind of betting isn’t as prevalent and isn’t legal in as many states.
This doesn’t mean it’s illegal everywhere. The United Kingdom has always been more open-minded about gambling than the United States, and bets on political events are still common there.
And some bookmakers in other countries are happy to take action from U.S. citizens regardless of the legality in the bettor’s jurisdiction.
Why Is It Illegal to Bet on Elections in the United States?
One of the concerns related to betting on sports is that it might corrupt the integrity of the sport. The Black Sox Scandal in 1919 is a classic example, although it seems to me that outlawing sports betting has done little to prevent such activity.
Everyone I know bets on sports, either with a local bookmaker, an online sportsbook, or both.
There’s a big difference, though.
With sports, the big concern is that bettors will bribe athletes to lose on purpose. In fact, countless movies have been made about boxers who were bribed to throw a match.
Think about it.
If your candidate is a massive longshot, according to the bookmakers, you might be less likely to show up and vote – ensuring that your candidate will lose.
I think this is a lousy argument for making election betting illegal, though.
Polls might easily have the same effect, but, as far as I know, no one has suggested we ban polling.
And, even though you can’t legally bet on an election in the United States, the bookmakers in other countries are still taking action. It’s easy to find out what the odds are for your favorite candidate.
I’ve been watching the gambling industry in the United States for a couple of decades now, and if I’ve learned anything, it’s this:
Changes in gambling laws happen SLOWLY.
How to Bet on the Presidential Election Anyway
First, I’m no lawyer. I don’t even play one on television. I have no idea what the legal risks are when it comes to betting on presidential elections.
But if you’re determined to bet on the presidential election anyway, I can offer some suggestions.
- Your first option is to find a likeminded individual who’s willing to bet with you. This should be someone you know and trust who won’t stiff you. Betting with such a person eliminates the vig, which is the amount that the sportsbook charges you to place a bet.
- Your second option is to find an online sportsbook operating from another country that’s willing to take action from a United States citizen on the election. Many such businesses exist.
As far as choosing the best political betting site is concerned, pay close attention to the bookmaker’s reputation. You’re talking about transferring money to and from a company that’s operating in an at-best grey legal area.
Such sportsbooks claim that the action they’re taking is governed by the jurisdiction where they operate. Presumably, it’s legal there to bet on such activities. United States prosecutors have a different attitude, which is why people like Calvin Ayre are hard to find.
The point is that you need to be comfortable that the book is going to pay you off if and when you win your bets. Some offshore sportsbooks are notorious for stiffing their customers.
Once you find such a sportsbook, you’ll need to find a way to get money to and from the company.
Once you’ve established an account at such a company and funded it, actually placing the bet is just a matter of finding the wager you want to make, inputting the amount you wish to wager, and pointing and clicking.
Odds on the 2020 US Presidential Election
Odds at MyBookie
- Joe Biden (-155)
- Donald Trump (+115)
- Kamala Harris (+1500)
- Mike Pence (+10000)
- Anyone Else (+35000)
Visit MyBookie
Odds at Bovada
- Joe Biden (-165)
- Donald Trump (+125)
- Kamala Harris (+7500)
- Mike Pence (+7500)
Visit Bovada
Odds at BetOnline
- Joe Biden (-180)
- Donald Trump (+160)
- Kamala Harris (+10000)
- Mike Pence (+10000)
- Jo Jorgensen (+50000)
Visit BetOnline
It’s no secret that offshore sportsbooks take action on presidential elections. I see the odds being published and updated regularly on various news sites.
So let’s look at recent odds for the presidential election at BetOnline.ag has Joe Biden at -180 and Donald Trump at +160. You could also bet on Hillary Clinton at +6000.
The -180 odds on Joe Biden mean that if you bet $180 on Biden winning, you win $100 if he wins the election.
The +160 odds on Donald Trump mean that if you bet $100 on Trump winning, you win $160 if he wins the election.
The minus sign indicates that he’s the favorite, so that’s the amount you must risk to win $100.
Hillary Clinton is clearly a longshot, so if you wager $100 on her winning, and she somehow pulls it off, you’d win $600.
Even with 60 to 1 odds, though, I think betting on Hillary is a sucker bet.
Conclusion
Sure, people have been doing so for decades.
But it isn’t legal to take action on such wagers.
My advice is to obey the law, but if you want to put a little money down on the next presidential election, at least only risk money you can afford to lose – especially if you’re betting with an offshore sportsbook rather than a buddy of yours.