Bet Numbers Basketball
Negative numbers signify the favorite on the betting line. The negative number indicates how much you’d need to bet to win $100. If the number is positive, you’re looking at the underdog, and the number refers to the amount of money you’ll win if you bet $100.
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An over–under or over/under (O/U) bet is a wager in which a sportsbook will predict a number for a statistic in a given game[1] (usually the combined score of the two teams), and bettors wager that the actual number in the game will be either higher or lower than that number.[2][3] For example, in Super Bowl XXXIX, most Las Vegascasinos set the over–under for the score of the game at 46.0. A bettor could wager that the combined score of the two teams would be either more than or less than that number. Since the combined score of that game was 45, anyone who had bet on 'under' won.
Initial and final value[edit]
The goal of a sportsbook is to have an equal value of bets on both sides of the over–under. In theory, this means that the manager could set the value at zero and then re-adjust based on either the number of incoming bets and/or events that influence the potential outcome. In practice, the initial value is based on both quantitative (e.g. win–loss record, average points per game, etc.) and anecdotal information (e.g. media reports, injury status of players, etc.).
As with other types of bets where the odds of either outcome are meant to be even, the vigorish (or 'vig') is typically set at or about 5% of the total wager. Using American odds, this will result in both outcomes initially being quoted at -110 (i.e. bettors must risk $110 to win $100). If the amount bet on both outcomes is exactly even, using such odds would result in the sportsbook earning $5 in gross profit for every $110 wagered.
Of course, bettors will not necessarily risk the same amount of money on both outcomes every time. In such circumstances, there are two ways a sportsbook can mitigate the risk. The first is to adjust the O/U while keeping the odds of both at -110. For example, if the O/U for a football game is set at 45.5 and the action heavily favors the 'over' then the O/U could be adjusted to 46.5 to encourage bettors to take the 'under.' The risk here is that the sportsbook could lose a lot of money by being 'middled' - using the aforementioned example, if the final combined score is 46 then the sportsbook would be obligated to pay both the initial bettors who bet 'over' and the later bettors who bet 'under.'
The other method to mitigate risk is to adjust the odds on the initial O/U, which is slightly more complicated but eliminates the risk of being 'middled.' In the aforementioned example, the 'under' could be adjusted to -105 while the 'over' is changed to -115 (meaning bettors would have to risk $105 and $115 respectively to win $100) in order to make the original 'under' proposition more attractive (and the 'over' less so) to bettors. In actual scenarios, even adjustments of -100 (i.e. 'even money') and -120 are common place as sportsbooks typically endeavor to maintain steady margins and minimize risk.
Statistics[edit]
Bet Numbers Basketball Odds
Though this bet is most commonly made with the combined score of the two teams, many other statistics can be used, including:
- In American football, a player's or team's total rushingyards or attempts, down conversions (first or third), interceptions, completions, field goal percentage, etc.
- In basketball, a player's or team's total assists, blocks, turnovers, steals, etc.
- In baseball, a player's or team's total number of home runs, RBIs, etc.
Dice[edit]
A variant of overunder betting, known as Under Over, is a dice game played at various festivals. The object of the game is to predict whether the dice will roll to a total of under 7, over 7, or at 7. The game is typically played with 2 dice.
A player typically places a wager on one of three spaces. These spaces are:
- Under 7 (usually pays 1–1)
- Over 7 (usually pays 1–1)
- 7 (usually pays 4–1)
For instance if one bets one dollar on under and the dealer rolls under, they gain a dollar as well as get their dollar back. If the dealer rolls a seven and one bets on it, they make four dollars. Once all the bets have been placed the attendant closes the betting board with a screen and then puts the dice through the chute. Players then get paid accordingly.
One variation of Under Over involves foam dice, two of which are thrown in the middle of the players; in another variation, two balls are thrown into a giant wheel consisting of twelve spaces of numbers ranging from 1–6. No wire fence is used to block the bets in that case.
References[edit]
- ^Kochan, M. (2013). Secrets of Professional Sports Betting. Cardoza Publishing. p. 12. ISBN978-1-58042-438-7. Retrieved April 25, 2015.
- ^Williams, L.V.; Siegel, D.S. (2014). The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Gambling. Oxford Handbooks in Economics Series. OUP USA. p. 205. ISBN978-0-19-979791-2.
- ^Fodor's Las Vegas 2015. Full-color Travel Guide. Fodor's Travel Publications. 2014. ISBN978-0-8041-4300-4.
Most people familiar with betting college basketball don’t think much about teasers. These bets are pretty popular in football, but simply don’t get as much action in basketball.
What is a Teaser Bet in Basketball? Understanding How They Work
For those that don’t know what a teaser is and how it works, here’s a quick explanation. The basic principle of a teaser is moving the line in your favor. The only catch is you have to include 2 or more teams and like a parlay, all the teams must win for you to cash a winning ticket. For example, say Duke was a 10-point favorite in their upcoming game. You like them to
For example, say you liked Duke -7, Michigan -4 and Kentucky -8. You like all three to win but aren’t so confident they will do so by more than the spread. You can include them in 4-point teaser and move the line 4-points in your favor. Using our example, Duke would go from -7 to -3, Michigan would go from -4 to a Pick’em and Kentucky would drop from -8 to -4.
The more teams you include the bigger the payouts, but also the less likely you are to win. You can also tease more than 4-points. However, the more points, the worse the payouts are going to get. As you can see from the chart below, a 2-team 4-point teaser would net you $117 on a $100 wager. If you used the same two teams and did a 10-point teaser, you would have to risk $410 just to win $100.
NCAA College Basketball Teaser Payout Chart By Points & Team Number
| Points | 2 team | 3 team | 4 team | 5 team | 6 team | 7 team | 8 team | 9 team | 10 team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | +117 | +200 | +335 | +525 | +805 | +1200 | +1775 | +2600 | +3800 |
| 4.5 | +103 | +190 | +315 | +490 | +745 | +1100 | +1625 | +2400 | +3500 |
| 5 | -110 | +165 | +265 | +410 | +610 | +890 | +1275 | +1825 | +2600 |
| 5.5 | -120 | +150 | +240 | +365 | +550 | +800 | +1100 | +1550 | +2150 |
| 6 | -150 | +120 | +185 | +270 | +380 | +530 | +725 | +975 | +1325 |
| 6.5 | -180 | +100 | +153 | +220 | +300 | +405 | +540 | +715 | +935 |
| 7 | -210 | -110 | +136 | +195 | +265 | +355 | +465 | +610 | +800 |
| 7.5 | -230 | -120 | +128 | +180 | +245 | +325 | +425 | +550 | +710 |
| 8 | -250 | -135 | +120 | +165 | +225 | +295 | +385 | +490 | +630 |
| 8.5 | -270 | -155 | +110 | +155 | +205 | +265 | +345 | +435 | +550 |
| 9 | -300 | -175 | +100 | +140 | +185 | +240 | +305 | +385 | +480 |
| 9.5 | -325 | -185 | -105 | +132 | +175 | +225 | +285 | +360 | +450 |
| 10 | -410 | -235 | -120 | +115 | +150 | +195 | +240 | +300 | +375 |
How to Know When It’s Profitable to Bet College Basketball Teasers
What I wanted to find out was if this was are NCAA basketball teasers profitable. Or, are people just not aware that they can be if you cross enough key numbers.
Bet Numbers Basketball Predictions
I went back over more than 8,000 of the most recent NCAA basketball games to find out. We’ve also focused only on games in January and February. This allowed us to zero in on home/away trends. I wanted to get rid of early and late season tournaments. Those don’t typically have a home court advantage.
I’ve broken these teaser results into four separate tables: Home Favorites, Home Underdogs, Road Favorites, and Road Underdogs. Typical basketball teasers are 4, 4.5 or 5 points.
The results below show the winning percentage of games with a closing spread (Line) at each number when teased 4, 4.5 or 5 points. We then compared that number to the winning percentage needed to turn a profit for a two-team teaser. Those are based on the typical available odds at a sportsbook. The break even percentages are listed at the bottom of each table.
You can compare teaser odds at online books here. The numbers below are based on the most common odds available.
I’ve also added separate results for 5Dimes and Bookmaker, which offer much better teaser odds than your typical site. We strongly recommend both if you are looking at getting into teasers. 5Dimes offers the best lines in the business when it comes to typical teasers. But, Bookmaker offers amazing payouts for 5.5, 6 and 6.5 point teasers in basketball.
Home Favorites
We start off by looking at home favorites in college basketball. There really aren’t a lot of good situations for teasing home favorites at the typical odds available for NCAA basketball. Teams favored by 14.5 to 15 points have historically been profitable to tease. But, keep in mind that the sample size on favorites of that many points is much smaller than more common spreads.
| Line | 4 | 4.5 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 59.21% | 61.01% | 63.26% |
| -1.5 | 63.70% | 64.95% | 65.63% |
| -2 | 61.18% | 62.64% | 64.47% |
| -2.5 | 59.16% | 62.00% | 63.75% |
| -3 | 62.82% | 63.53% | 66.07% |
| -3.5 | 59.67% | 61.68% | 62.93% |
| -4 | 62.80% | 62.80% | 63.82% |
| -4.5 | 64.88% | 64.88% | 64.88% |
| -5 | 68.81% | 69.76% | 69.76% |
| -5.5 | 63.73% | 65.56% | 66.52% |
| -6 | 65.99% | 67.81% | 69.91% |
| -6.5 | 66.59% | 69.14% | 70.28% |
| -7 | 66.74% | 67.87% | 71.56% |
| -7.5 | 69.13% | 71.95% | 73.04% |
| -8 | 64.84% | 65.82% | 68.06% |
| -8.5 | 65.25% | 68.66% | 70.21% |
| -9 | 65.65% | 66.96% | 69.82% |
| -9.5 | 64.71% | 66.77% | 67.80% |
| -10 | 64.35% | 65.86% | 68.55% |
| -10.5 | 61.98% | 64.24% | 65.50% |
| -11 | 63.83% | 66.23% | 68.26% |
| -11.5 | 65.71% | 71.60% | 73.93% |
| -12 | 58.46% | 60.73% | 64.48% |
| -12.5 | 66.95% | 70.27% | 71.67% |
| -13 | 61.57% | 63.64% | 66.09% |
| -13.5 | 60.93% | 64.22% | 66.05% |
| -14 | 64.85% | 66.82% | 68.75% |
| -14.5 | 71.51% | 74.42% | 75.42% |
| -15 | 72.14% | 73.83% | 75.86% |
| % Needed | 70.71% | 72.39% | 73.82% |
Road Favorites
With road favorites we finally see some great situations for teasers. We see this phenomenon in other sports as well and it makes sense when you think about it. It’s not easy for an away team to be favored unless they are clearly the better team. Then you get extra points to play with, giving that team a very good chance of covering.
| Line | 4 | 4.5 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 63.42% | 64.68% | 66.35% |
| -1.5 | 60.29% | 63.80% | 65.80% |
| -2 | 61.07% | 62.85% | 66.22% |
| -2.5 | 62.77% | 65.59% | 67.08% |
| -3 | 62.69% | 63.14% | 65.93% |
| -3.5 | 61.08% | 63.16% | 64.37% |
| -4 | 65.12% | 65.12% | 66.27% |
| -4.5 | 64.48% | 64.48% | 64.48% |
| -5 | 60.54% | 62.39% | 62.39% |
| -5.5 | 68.70% | 70.85% | 71.74% |
| -6 | 70.79% | 71.50% | 72.91% |
| -6.5 | 77.23% | 78.39% | 78.71% |
| -7 | 71.53% | 72.67% | 75.69% |
| -7.5 | 60.67% | 64.08% | 66.00% |
| -8 | 64.00% | 65.16% | 67.33% |
| -8.5 | 74.02% | 75.81% | 76.38% |
| -9 | 70.09% | 70.91% | 73.58% |
| -9.5 | 71.74% | 74.16% | 75.00% |
| -10 | 70.71% | 71.00% | 74.74% |
| -10.5 | 64.20% | 65.82% | 66.67% |
| -11 | 68.00% | 68.00% | 70.83% |
| -11.5 | 60.00% | 62.90% | 64.62% |
| -12 | 69.64% | 72.13% | 74.58% |
| -12.5 | 73.81% | 75.61% | 76.19% |
| -13 | 72.97% | 74.36% | 76.32% |
| -13.5 | 83.87% | 86.67% | 87.10% |
| -14 | 65.52% | 65.52% | 70.37% |
| -14.5 | 71.43% | 71.43% | 71.43% |
| -15 | 47.62% | 47.62% | 47.62% |
| % Needed | 70.71% | 72.39% | 73.82% |
Road Underdogs
We didn’t expect to see many good situations for visiting underdogs. But, the results tell a different story. Visiting underdogs from 12 to 13 points are your best bet for teasing in most cases. This is likely because once a team is up by double-digits late in the game they tend to play backups or at least slow their pace. This gives the losing team a chance to catch up and cover the spread you teased to.
| Line | 4 | 4.5 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1 | 68.75% | 69.60% | 72.17% |
| +1.5 | 68.27% | 71.54% | 72.84% |
| +2 | 70.04% | 70.94% | 74.46% |
| +2.5 | 66.93% | 68.57% | 69.32% |
| +3 | 67.33% | 68.52% | 70.41% |
| +3.5 | 67.62% | 69.60% | 70.47% |
| +4 | 67.43% | 68.80% | 72.12% |
| +4.5 | 68.06% | 69.72% | 70.44% |
| +5 | 66.53% | 67.94% | 70.50% |
| +5.5 | 70.39% | 72.57% | 73.39% |
| +6 | 73.99% | 75.11% | 76.92% |
| +6.5 | 64.86% | 67.80% | 69.20% |
| +7 | 69.63% | 70.79% | 72.92% |
| +7.5 | 66.52% | 70.02% | 71.52% |
| +8 | 72.87% | 74.18% | 76.50% |
| +8.5 | 67.61% | 70.10% | 71.16% |
| +9 | 67.67% | 68.71% | 71.00% |
| +9.5 | 69.35% | 71.57% | 72.45% |
| +10 | 67.08% | 67.98% | 70.09% |
| +10.5 | 66.77% | 68.75% | 69.65% |
| +11 | 72.41% | 73.51% | 75.51% |
| +11.5 | 67.86% | 69.85% | 70.71% |
| +12 | 74.72% | 75.27% | 77.24% |
| +12.5 | 70.82% | 72.69% | 73.39% |
| +13 | 72.65% | 73.55% | 74.48% |
| +13.5 | 66.05% | 67.62% | 68.37% |
| +14 | 69.80% | 71.50% | 73.56% |
| +14.5 | 67.60% | 71.18% | 72.63% |
| +15 | 64.34% | 65.77% | 68.06% |
| % Needed | 70.71% | 72.39% | 73.82% |
Comparing Best NCAA Basketball Teaser Odds at Different SportsBooks
5Dimes Teaser Charts
Home Favorites (5Dimes)
We get similar results at 5Dimes compared to typical odds. Yet, you should note that you can hit at a lower rate and still profit. This means you don’t need to win as many of your teases over time to get a return on your investment.
| Line | 4 | 4.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 61.01% | 61.01% | 64.57% | 64.57% | 69.60% |
| -1.5 | 63.70% | 65.63% | 65.63% | 66.83% | 66.83% |
| -2 | 62.64% | 62.64% | 65.47% | 65.47% | 69.06% |
| -2.5 | 59.16% | 63.75% | 63.75% | 66.33% | 66.33% |
| -3 | 63.53% | 63.53% | 67.37% | 67.37% | 70.44% |
| -3.5 | 59.67% | 62.93% | 62.93% | 67.82% | 67.82% |
| -4 | 62.80% | 62.80% | 64.40% | 64.40% | 68.40% |
| -4.5 | 64.88% | 64.88% | 64.88% | 67.86% | 67.86% |
| -5 | 69.76% | 69.76% | 69.76% | 69.76% | 73.79% |
| -5.5 | 63.73% | 66.52% | 66.52% | 66.52% | 66.52% |
| -6 | 67.81% | 67.81% | 70.82% | 70.82% | 70.82% |
| -6.5 | 66.59% | 70.28% | 70.28% | 73.10% | 73.10% |
| -7 | 67.87% | 67.87% | 73.03% | 73.03% | 75.06% |
| -7.5 | 69.13% | 73.04% | 73.04% | 76.09% | 76.09% |
| -8 | 65.82% | 65.82% | 69.11% | 69.11% | 73.16% |
| -8.5 | 65.25% | 70.21% | 70.21% | 76.12% | 76.12% |
| -9 | 66.96% | 66.96% | 71.05% | 71.05% | 76.02% |
| -9.5 | 64.71% | 67.80% | 67.80% | 72.45% | 72.45% |
| -10 | 65.86% | 65.86% | 69.79% | 69.79% | 73.72% |
| -10.5 | 61.98% | 65.50% | 65.50% | 70.61% | 70.61% |
| -11 | 66.23% | 66.23% | 69.21% | 69.21% | 72.19% |
| -11.5 | 65.71% | 73.93% | 73.93% | 77.14% | 77.14% |
| -12 | 60.73% | 60.73% | 66.55% | 66.55% | 71.27% |
| -12.5 | 66.95% | 71.67% | 71.67% | 74.25% | 74.25% |
| -13 | 63.64% | 63.64% | 67.36% | 67.36% | 72.31% |
| -13.5 | 60.93% | 66.05% | 66.05% | 69.30% | 69.30% |
| -14 | 66.82% | 66.82% | 69.63% | 69.63% | 74.30% |
| -14.5 | 71.51% | 75.42% | 75.42% | 79.89% | 79.89% |
| -15 | 73.83% | 73.83% | 76.51% | 76.51% | 81.21% |
| % Needed | 69.84% | 70.53% | 73.14% | 74.93% | 78.26% |
Home Underdogs (5Dimes)
You can really see the advantage at 5Dimes over your book with 5 though 6 point teaser payouts. Just compare this table to the table above. You’ll see how many more opportunities there are to tease home dogs.
| Line | 4 | 4.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1 | 64.45% | 64.45% | 66.28% | 66.28% | 68.81% |
| +1.5 | 64.35% | 67.54% | 67.54% | 71.88% | 71.88% |
| +2 | 68.45% | 68.45% | 70.74% | 70.74% | 74.05% |
| +2.5 | 63.08% | 68.00% | 68.00% | 71.38% | 71.38% |
| +3 | 67.07% | 67.07% | 69.18% | 69.18% | 71.90% |
| +3.5 | 64.97% | 69.16% | 69.16% | 71.26% | 71.26% |
| +4 | 69.77% | 69.77% | 73.55% | 73.55% | 76.45% |
| +4.5 | 69.50% | 72.20% | 72.20% | 74.90% | 74.90% |
| +5 | 69.23% | 69.23% | 71.79% | 71.79% | 75.64% |
| +5.5 | 64.35% | 68.26% | 68.26% | 71.74% | 71.74% |
| +6 | 67.63% | 67.63% | 72.46% | 72.46% | 74.88% |
| +6.5 | 60.89% | 63.37% | 63.37% | 65.84% | 65.84% |
| +7 | 69.33% | 69.33% | 74.67% | 74.67% | 76.67% |
| +7.5 | 73.33% | 77.33% | 77.33% | 79.33% | 79.33% |
| +8 | 61.29% | 61.29% | 64.52% | 64.52% | 66.45% |
| +8.5 | 61.42% | 65.35% | 65.35% | 70.87% | 70.87% |
| +9 | 68.18% | 68.18% | 73.64% | 73.64% | 76.36% |
| +9.5 | 64.13% | 66.30% | 66.30% | 68.48% | 68.48% |
| +10 | 62.00% | 62.00% | 63.00% | 63.00% | 69.00% |
| +10.5 | 67.90% | 72.84% | 72.84% | 76.54% | 76.54% |
| +11 | 68.00% | 68.00% | 69.33% | 69.33% | 76.00% |
| +11.5 | 70.77% | 73.85% | 73.85% | 75.38% | 75.38% |
| +12 | 68.85% | 68.85% | 72.13% | 72.13% | 77.05% |
| +12.5 | 61.90% | 66.67% | 66.67% | 69.05% | 69.05% |
| +13 | 64.10% | 64.10% | 66.67% | 66.67% | 66.67% |
| +13.5 | 51.61% | 54.84% | 54.84% | 64.52% | 64.52% |
| +14 | 72.41% | 72.41% | 79.31% | 79.31% | 86.21% |
| +14.5 | 61.90% | 71.43% | 71.43% | 71.43% | 71.43% |
| +15 | 71.43% | 71.43% | 76.19% | 76.19% | 80.95% |
| % Needed | 69.84% | 70.53% | 73.14% | 74.93% | 78.26% |
Road Favorites (5Dimes)
Bet Numbers Basketball Rules
There are a ton of situations where teasing road favorites at 5Dimes are profitable. There are a wide range of options for teams favored by 6 to 15 points on the road. As a general rule, lines makers tend to over-adjust for home floor advantage in college hoops. That’s just fine with us! It gives us a lot of great teaser situations season after season.
| Line | 4 | 4.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 64.68% | 64.68% | 67.20% | 67.20% | 71.56% |
| -1.5 | 60.29% | 65.80% | 65.80% | 69.57% | 69.57% |
| -2 | 62.85% | 62.85% | 67.94% | 67.94% | 72.26% |
| -2.5 | 62.77% | 67.08% | 67.08% | 70.46% | 70.46% |
| -3 | 63.14% | 63.14% | 67.37% | 67.37% | 71.60% |
| -3.5 | 61.08% | 64.37% | 64.37% | 66.17% | 66.17% |
| -4 | 65.12% | 65.12% | 66.86% | 66.86% | 70.93% |
| -4.5 | 64.48% | 64.48% | 64.48% | 66.02% | 66.02% |
| -5 | 62.39% | 62.39% | 62.39% | 62.39% | 65.38% |
| -5.5 | 68.70% | 71.74% | 71.74% | 71.74% | 71.74% |
| -6 | 71.50% | 71.50% | 73.43% | 73.43% | 73.43% |
| -6.5 | 77.23% | 78.71% | 78.71% | 80.20% | 80.20% |
| -7 | 72.67% | 72.67% | 76.67% | 76.67% | 79.33% |
| -7.5 | 60.67% | 66.00% | 66.00% | 72.67% | 72.67% |
| -8 | 65.16% | 65.16% | 68.39% | 68.39% | 71.61% |
| -8.5 | 74.02% | 76.38% | 76.38% | 77.95% | 77.95% |
| -9 | 70.91% | 70.91% | 74.55% | 74.55% | 78.18% |
| -9.5 | 71.74% | 75.00% | 75.00% | 80.43% | 80.43% |
| -10 | 71.00% | 71.00% | 76.00% | 76.00% | 78.00% |
| -10.5 | 64.20% | 66.67% | 66.67% | 71.60% | 71.60% |
| -11 | 68.00% | 68.00% | 72.00% | 72.00% | 72.00% |
| -11.5 | 60.00% | 64.62% | 64.62% | 66.15% | 66.15% |
| -12 | 72.13% | 72.13% | 75.41% | 75.41% | 77.05% |
| -12.5 | 73.81% | 76.19% | 76.19% | 78.57% | 78.57% |
| -13 | 74.36% | 74.36% | 76.92% | 76.92% | 76.92% |
| -13.5 | 83.87% | 87.10% | 87.10% | 90.32% | 90.32% |
| -14 | 65.52% | 65.52% | 72.41% | 72.41% | 72.41% |
| -14.5 | 71.43% | 71.43% | 71.43% | 71.43% | 71.43% |
| -15 | 47.62% | 47.62% | 47.62% | 47.62% | 61.90% |
| % Needed | 69.84% | 70.53% | 73.14% | 74.93% | 78.26% |
Road Underdogs (5Dimes)
Again, away underdogs really beat our expectations for teaser purposes. The 5, 5.5 and 6 point options at 5Dimes really open up a huge number of situations where you can profit by teasing underdogs away from home.
| Line | 4 | 4.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1 | 69.60% | 69.60% | 73.17% | 73.17% | 75.89% |
| +1.5 | 68.27% | 72.84% | 72.84% | 75.48% | 75.48% |
| +2 | 70.94% | 70.94% | 75.66% | 75.66% | 77.17% |
| +2.5 | 66.93% | 69.32% | 69.32% | 72.11% | 72.11% |
| +3 | 68.52% | 68.52% | 71.21% | 71.21% | 75.24% |
| +3.5 | 67.62% | 70.47% | 70.47% | 73.52% | 73.52% |
| +4 | 68.80% | 68.80% | 73.40% | 73.40% | 77.20% |
| +4.5 | 68.06% | 70.44% | 70.44% | 73.61% | 73.61% |
| +5 | 67.94% | 67.94% | 71.57% | 71.57% | 76.01% |
| +5.5 | 70.39% | 73.39% | 73.39% | 76.82% | 76.82% |
| +6 | 75.11% | 75.11% | 77.47% | 77.47% | 80.04% |
| +6.5 | 64.86% | 69.20% | 69.20% | 73.32% | 73.32% |
| +7 | 70.79% | 70.79% | 73.71% | 73.71% | 76.63% |
| +7.5 | 66.52% | 71.52% | 71.52% | 74.78% | 74.78% |
| +8 | 74.18% | 74.18% | 77.22% | 77.22% | 80.76% |
| +8.5 | 67.61% | 71.16% | 71.16% | 72.58% | 72.58% |
| +9 | 68.71% | 68.71% | 71.93% | 71.93% | 76.32% |
| +9.5 | 69.35% | 72.45% | 72.45% | 75.85% | 75.85% |
| +10 | 67.98% | 67.98% | 71.00% | 71.00% | 73.72% |
| +10.5 | 66.77% | 69.65% | 69.65% | 72.52% | 72.52% |
| +11 | 73.51% | 73.51% | 76.16% | 76.16% | 77.81% |
| +11.5 | 67.86% | 70.71% | 70.71% | 75.36% | 75.36% |
| +12 | 75.27% | 75.27% | 77.82% | 77.82% | 79.64% |
| +12.5 | 70.82% | 73.39% | 73.39% | 76.39% | 76.39% |
| +13 | 73.55% | 73.55% | 74.79% | 74.79% | 77.69% |
| +13.5 | 66.05% | 68.37% | 68.37% | 71.63% | 71.63% |
| +14 | 71.50% | 71.50% | 74.30% | 74.30% | 77.10% |
| +14.5 | 67.60% | 72.63% | 72.63% | 77.09% | 77.09% |
| +15 | 65.77% | 65.77% | 69.13% | 69.13% | 72.48% |
| % Needed | 69.84% | 70.53% | 73.14% | 74.93% | 78.26% |
Bookmaker Teaser Charts
5Dimes offers better returns for 4, 4.5 and 5 point teasers, but Bookmaker provides by far the best 5.5, 6 and 6.5 point payouts. Historical results for those teasers have been listed below.
Home Favorites (Bookmaker)
| Line | 5.5 | 6 | 6.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 64.57% | 67.99% | 69.60% |
| -1.5 | 66.42% | 66.83% | 71.28% |
| -2 | 65.47% | 67.91% | 69.06% |
| -2.5 | 65.44% | 66.33% | 68.80% |
| -3 | 67.37% | 69.50% | 70.44% |
| -3.5 | 66.17% | 67.82% | 70.11% |
| -4 | 64.40% | 67.08% | 68.40% |
| -4.5 | 66.87% | 67.86% | 70.52% |
| -5 | 69.76% | 72.69% | 73.79% |
| -5.5 | 66.52% | 66.52% | 68.89% |
| -6 | 70.82% | 70.82% | 70.82% |
| -6.5 | 72.32% | 73.10% | 73.10% |
| -7 | 73.03% | 74.54% | 75.06% |
| -7.5 | 75.34% | 76.09% | 78.30% |
| -8 | 69.11% | 72.03% | 73.16% |
| -8.5 | 74.62% | 76.12% | 79.70% |
| -9 | 71.05% | 74.77% | 76.02% |
| -9.5 | 71.10% | 72.45% | 75.73% |
| -10 | 69.79% | 72.64% | 73.72% |
| -10.5 | 69.02% | 70.61% | 72.94% |
| -11 | 69.21% | 71.33% | 72.19% |
| -11.5 | 76.38% | 77.14% | 78.83% |
| -12 | 66.55% | 69.85% | 71.27% |
| -12.5 | 73.57% | 74.25% | 76.89% |
| -13 | 67.36% | 70.87% | 72.31% |
| -13.5 | 68.27% | 69.30% | 73.04% |
| -14 | 69.63% | 73.04% | 74.30% |
| -14.5 | 78.95% | 79.89% | 83.63% |
| -15 | 76.51% | 80.28% | 81.21% |
| % Needed | 73.58% | 75.18% | 76.38% |
Home Underdogs (Bookmaker)
| Line | 5.5 | 6 | 6.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1 | 66.28% | 68.00% | 68.81% |
| +1.5 | 70.61% | 71.88% | 74.25% |
| +2 | 70.74% | 73.16% | 74.05% |
| +2.5 | 70.38% | 71.38% | 75.32% |
| +3 | 69.18% | 71.12% | 71.90% |
| +3.5 | 70.64% | 71.26% | 73.46% |
| +4 | 73.55% | 75.75% | 76.45% |
| +4.5 | 74.21% | 74.90% | 76.68% |
| +5 | 71.79% | 74.67% | 75.64% |
| +5.5 | 70.72% | 71.74% | 74.32% |
| +6 | 72.46% | 74.26% | 74.88% |
| +6.5 | 64.97% | 65.84% | 70.37% |
| +7 | 74.67% | 76.19% | 76.67% |
| +7.5 | 78.91% | 79.33% | 82.07% |
| +8 | 64.52% | 65.79% | 66.45% |
| +8.5 | 69.17% | 70.87% | 76.27% |
| +9 | 73.64% | 75.70% | 76.36% |
| +9.5 | 67.78% | 68.48% | 69.23% |
| +10 | 63.00% | 67.02% | 69.00% |
| +10.5 | 75.64% | 76.54% | 78.48% |
| +11 | 69.33% | 74.29% | 76.00% |
| +11.5 | 75.00% | 75.38% | 79.03% |
| +12 | 72.13% | 75.86% | 77.05% |
| +12.5 | 68.29% | 69.05% | 70.73% |
| +13 | 66.67% | 66.67% | 66.67% |
| +13.5 | 60.71% | 64.52% | 64.52% |
| +14 | 79.31% | 85.19% | 86.21% |
| +14.5 | 71.43% | 71.43% | 71.43% |
| +15 | 76.19% | 80.00% | 80.95% |
| % Needed | 73.58% | 75.18% | 76.38% |
Road Favorites (Bookmaker)
| Line | 5.5 | 6 | 6.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 67.20% | 70.26% | 71.56% |
| -1.5 | 68.37% | 69.57% | 71.43% |
| -2 | 67.94% | 71.01% | 72.26% |
| -2.5 | 69.43% | 70.46% | 73.40% |
| -3 | 67.37% | 70.35% | 71.60% |
| -3.5 | 65.55% | 66.17% | 68.63% |
| -4 | 66.86% | 69.70% | 70.93% |
| -4.5 | 65.49% | 66.02% | 67.59% |
| -5 | 62.39% | 64.32% | 65.38% |
| -5.5 | 71.74% | 71.74% | 73.66% |
| -6 | 73.43% | 73.43% | 73.43% |
| -6.5 | 79.90% | 80.20% | 80.20% |
| -7 | 76.67% | 78.77% | 79.33% |
| -7.5 | 70.71% | 72.67% | 75.17% |
| -8 | 68.39% | 70.67% | 71.61% |
| -8.5 | 77.60% | 77.95% | 79.84% |
| -9 | 74.55% | 77.36% | 78.18% |
| -9.5 | 79.31% | 80.43% | 87.06% |
| -10 | 76.00% | 77.55% | 78.00% |
| -10.5 | 70.13% | 71.60% | 75.32% |
| -11 | 72.00% | 72.00% | 72.00% |
| -11.5 | 65.63% | 66.15% | 67.19% |
| -12 | 75.41% | 76.67% | 77.05% |
| -12.5 | 78.05% | 78.57% | 80.49% |
| -13 | 76.92% | 76.92% | 76.92% |
| -13.5 | 90.00% | 90.32% | 90.32% |
| -14 | 72.41% | 72.41% | 72.41% |
| -14.5 | 71.43% | 71.43% | 71.43% |
| -15 | 47.62% | 55.56% | 61.90% |
| % Needed | 73.58% | 75.18% | 76.38% |
Road Underdogs (Bookmaker)
Bet Numbers Basketball Game
| Line | 5.5 | 6 | 6.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1 | 73.17% | 75.22% | 75.89% |
| +1.5 | 74.81% | 75.48% | 78.30% |
| +2 | 75.66% | 76.82% | 77.17% |
| +2.5 | 71.31% | 72.11% | 74.33% |
| +3 | 71.21% | 74.20% | 75.24% |
| +3.5 | 72.69% | 73.52% | 77.14% |
| +4 | 73.40% | 76.30% | 77.20% |
| +4.5 | 72.75% | 73.61% | 76.18% |
| +5 | 71.57% | 74.89% | 76.01% |
| +5.5 | 76.00% | 76.82% | 79.03% |
| +6 | 77.47% | 79.52% | 80.04% |
| +6.5 | 72.17% | 73.32% | 76.99% |
| +7 | 73.71% | 75.93% | 76.63% |
| +7.5 | 73.93% | 74.78% | 75.94% |
| +8 | 77.22% | 80.05% | 80.76% |
| +8.5 | 72.18% | 72.58% | 75.43% |
| +9 | 71.93% | 75.23% | 76.32% |
| +9.5 | 75.00% | 75.85% | 77.78% |
| +10 | 71.00% | 72.98% | 73.72% |
| +10.5 | 71.71% | 72.52% | 73.70% |
| +11 | 76.16% | 77.44% | 77.81% |
| +11.5 | 74.16% | 75.36% | 77.57% |
| +12 | 77.82% | 79.26% | 79.64% |
| +12.5 | 75.66% | 76.39% | 77.73% |
| +13 | 74.79% | 77.02% | 77.69% |
| +13.5 | 70.67% | 71.63% | 73.33% |
| +14 | 74.30% | 76.44% | 77.10% |
| +14.5 | 76.02% | 77.09% | 78.86% |
| +15 | 69.13% | 71.53% | 72.48% |
| % Needed | 73.58% | 75.18% | 76.38% |
Conclusions
NCAA basketball offers a ton of great teasing opportunities. It might be better than any other sport. On average, road teams offer the most chances for profitable teases. We believe this to be due to an inflated sense of the benefits from playing at home. Compared to the NBA, home floor is not worth nearly as many points (on average) in college basketball. There are many variables that impact this, but we’ve checked the data for the NBA and college basketball and found it to be true (on average home court is worth about 6 points in the NBA and just 3.6 points in college hoops).
You can use these tables any time you are looking for an extra edge handicapping NCAA basketball games. We wouldn’t recommend using it exclusively or following it blindly. But, we do think it can be a great tool for helping knowing the best situations to tease certain teams.